Wednesday, July 16, 2008

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins

Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2008 Jul 15 2254 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
07 - 13 July 2008

Solar activity was very low. No flares were detected. The visible
disk was spotless.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at high levels on 13 July.

Geomagnetic field activity began the period at mostly quiet levels. Late on 11 July the geomagnetic field became active due to a co-rotating interaction region (CIR), ahead of a coronal hole high speed stream. Wind speed values increased from roughly 350 km/s on 07 July to values of over 500 km/s and interplanetary magnetic field Bz component varied between +/- 12 nT with the arrival of the CIR. As the coronal hole high speed stream became geoeffective on 12
July, wind speeds continued to increase to a maximum of around 730 km/s by the end of the summary period. The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels on 12 July and then settled to quiet to active conditions on 13 July as the wind speed values leveled off.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
16 July - 11 August 2008

Solar activity is expected to be very low.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 16 July, 19 - 21 July, and again on 09 - 11 August. 13 - 16 July and again 19 - 21 July.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels 16 - 18 July due to the current coronal hole high speed stream. On 19 - 21 July expect mostly quiet conditions as the high speed stream rotates out of a geoeffective position. A recurrent coronal hole high speed stream is expected to be geoeffective on 22 - 26 July, increasing activity levels to quiet to unsettled conditions with isolated active periods possible on 23 July. On 27 July to 06 August expect predominately quiet conditions as the Earth moves out of the influence of the coronal hole high speed stream. Another recurrent coronal hole high speed stream is expected to become geoeffective on 07 - 11 August. The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during this timeframe with minor storm conditions possible on 08 August and active
conditions likely on 09 August.

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2008 Jul 15 2254 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html

# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2008 Jul 15
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2008 Jul 16 66 10 3
2008 Jul 17 66 8 3
2008 Jul 18 66 10 3
2008 Jul 19 66 5 2
2008 Jul 20 66 5 2
2008 Jul 21 66 5 2
2008 Jul 22 66 10 3
2008 Jul 23 66 15 4
2008 Jul 24 66 8 3
2008 Jul 25 66 8 3
2008 Jul 26 66 8 3
2008 Jul 27 66 5 2
2008 Jul 28 66 5 2
2008 Jul 29 66 5 2
2008 Jul 30 66 8 3
2008 Jul 31 66 5 2
2008 Aug 01 66 8 3
2008 Aug 02 66 5 2
2008 Aug 03 66 5 2
2008 Aug 04 66 5 2
2008 Aug 05 66 5 2
2008 Aug 06 66 5 2
2008 Aug 07 66 10 3
2008 Aug 08 66 20 5
2008 Aug 09 66 15 4
2008 Aug 10 66 10 3
2008 Aug 11 66 10 3
(NOAA)