Friday, May 29, 2009

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins


Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2009 May 26 1821 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact: www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 18 - 24 May 2009
Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed. New-cycle polarity Region 1017 (N18, L=184, class/area Bxo/020 on 14 May) was numbered on 13 May. It was inactive and simply-structured during the period and rotated off the disk on 24 May as spotless plage. New-cycle polarity Region 1018 (S33, L= 046, class/area, Bxo/030 on 23 May) was numbered on 23 May. The region decayed as spotless plage on 24 May. The region was inactive during its short lifespan.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal levels during the period.

Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels at all latitudes during most of the period. However, activity briefly increased to active levels at high latitudes on 22 May. ACE observations indicated the active period (22/1500 - 22/1800 UTC) was due to solar wind changes associated with a period of sustained southward IMF Bz (minimum - 4 nT) and a modest increase in velocities (approximately 370 km/sec).

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
27 May - 22 June 2009

Solar activity is expected to be very low.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal flux levels.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet levels through 02 June. Activity is expected to increase to mostly unsettled levels during 03 - 05 June with a chance for active levels at high latitudes on 04 June due to a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream. Mostly quiet conditions are expected during 06 - 09 June. Activity is expected to increase to quiet to unsettled levels on 10 - 11 June due to a recurrent coronal hole wind stream. Mostly quiet conditions are expected during 12 -22 June.

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
:Issued: 2009 May 26 1821 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC webcontact: www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2009 May 26

# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2009 May 27 70 5 2
2009 May 28 70 5 2
2009 May 29 70 5 2
2009 May 30 70 5 2
2009 May 31 70 5 2
2009 Jun 01 70 5 2
2009 Jun 02 70 5 2
2009 Jun 03 70 10 3
2009 Jun 04 70 10 4
2009 Jun 05 70 8 3
2009 Jun 06 71 5 2
2009 Jun 07 72 5 2
2009 Jun 08 72 5 2
2009 Jun 09 72 5 2
2009 Jun 10 72 8 3
2009 Jun 11 72 8 3
2009 Jun 12 72 5 2
2009 Jun 13 72 5 2
2009 Jun 14 72 5 2
2009 Jun 15 71 5 2
2009 Jun 16 71 5 2
2009 Jun 17 70 5 2
2009 Jun 18 70 5 2
2009 Jun 19 70 5 2
2009 Jun 20 70 5 2
2009 Jun 21 70 5 2
2009 Jun 22 70 5 2
(NOAA)