Wednesday, December 15, 2010

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins

Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2010 Dec 14 2025 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact: www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
06 - 12 December 2010

Solar activity was at very low levels throughout the period. Region 1131 (N31, L = 204, class/area Dho/290 on 12 December) and Region 1133 (N15, L = 180, class/area Cso/110 on 11 December) remained stable. A large filament erupted in the southeast quadrant at 06/1535Z. An associated CME was observed in STEREO-A COR2 imagery beginning at 06/1909Z. This CME was not forecast to become geoeffective. Another filament eruption occurred early on 12
December. An associated CME was first visible in STEREO-A imagery at 12/0330Z and was observed departing the southwest limb at 12/0412Z in LASCO C2 imagery. A weak influence at Earth is possible on 17 December. Coincident with the eruption was a long duration B4 x-ray
event that peaked at 12/0628Z. There were two additional CMEs observed in LASCO C2 imagery on 12 December. The first was observed departing from the northeast limb at 12/0524Z and the second from the southeast limb at 12/0612Z. Neither are expected to be
geoeffective.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal levels throughout the period.

Geomagnetic field activity was at predominantly quiet levels throughout the period. At approximately 12/1500Z the field became unsettled to active. The increase in geomagnetic activity was due to the arrival of a Coronal Hole High-Speed Stream (CH HSS).

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
15 December - 10 January 2011

Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with a slight chance for C-class activity throughout the forecast period. Old Region 1130 (N13, L = 331) and old Region 1132 (N10, L = 251) are expected to rotate back on the visible disk on 19 December and 24 December respectfully.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal levels on 13 -14 December. Activity is expected to increase to moderate to high levels from 15-20 December. Normal levels are expected for the remainder of the period.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be quiet to unsettled on 15-16 December due to a recurrent CH HSS. Quiet conditions are expected from 17-18 December and then the return of quiet to unsettled conditions is expected from 15-20 December due to a second CH HSS. Activity is expected to again decrease to mostly quiet evels from 21 -23 December. The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled from 24-25 December due to a third recurrent CH HSS. Mostly quiet levels are expected for the remainder of the period.

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2010 Dec 14 2025 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact: www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2010-12-14
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2010 Dec 15 88 5 2
2010 Dec 16 88 8 3
2010 Dec 17 86 5 2
2010 Dec 18 84 5 2
2010 Dec 19 86 8 3
2010 Dec 20 86 7 2
2010 Dec 21 86 5 2
2010 Dec 22 86 5 2
2010 Dec 23 86 5 2
2010 Dec 24 88 7 2
2010 Dec 25 88 7 2
2010 Dec 26 88 5 2
2010 Dec 27 88 5 2
2010 Dec 28 88 5 2
2010 Dec 29 90 5 2
2010 Dec 30 90 5 2
2010 Dec 31 90 5 2
2011 Jan 01 90 5 2
2011 Jan 02 88 5 2
2011 Jan 03 88 5 2
2011 Jan 04 88 5 2
2011 Jan 05 85 5 2
2011 Jan 06 85 5 2
2011 Jan 07 85 5 2
2011 Jan 08 88 5 2
2011 Jan 09 88 5 2
2011 Jan 10 88 5 2
(NOAA)