Friday, December 31, 2010

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins

Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2010 Dec 28 1925 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact: www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
20 - 26 December 2010


Solar activity was at very low to low levels throughout the period with no flares detected. A partial-halo CME departed the southwest quadrant early on 23 December associated with a filament eruption.

No Proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at normal levels throughout the period.

Geomagnetic activity was at quiet to unsettled levels on 20 December with active to minor storm levels detected at high latitudes. Activity decreased to quiet levels during 21-26 December. The activity observed on 20 December was associated with a period of enhanced IMF Bt (peak 10nT at 20/0404 UTC) coupled with southward IMF Bz (maximum deflection -8 nT at 20/0758 UTC).

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
29 December - 24 January 2011


Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with a slight chance for C-class activity throughout the period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal levels between 29 December and 11 January. Flux levels are expected to increase to moderate to high levels from 12-13 January. Normal levels are expected for the remainder of the period.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be quiet to unsettled on 29 December, due to subsiding affects of the aforementioned CME, before decreasing to quiet levels and remaining through 1 January. Activity is expected to increase to quiet to unsettled levels 2-4 January due to HSS effects from a large coronal hole in the northeast quadrant of the disk. The field is expected to return to quiet from 5-19 January. With recurrent CH HSS effects expected, conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled 20-21 January, before subsiding to mostly quiet levels for the remainder of the period.

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2010 Dec 28 1925 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact: www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html

27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2010-12-28
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2010 Dec 29 90 5 2
2010 Dec 30 90 5 2
2010 Dec 31 90 5 2
2011 Jan 01 90 5 2
2011 Jan 02 88 5 2
2011 Jan 03 88 7 3
2011 Jan 04 88 7 3
2011 Jan 05 85 7 3
2011 Jan 06 85 7 3
2011 Jan 07 85 5 2
2011 Jan 08 88 5 2
2011 Jan 09 88 5 2
2011 Jan 10 88 5 2
2011 Jan 11 85 5 2
2011 Jan 12 85 5 2
2011 Jan 13 80 5 2
2011 Jan 14 80 5 2
2011 Jan 15 80 5 2
2011 Jan 16 78 5 2
2011 Jan 17 78 5 2
2011 Jan 18 78 5 2
2011 Jan 19 80 5 2
2011 Jan 20 80 7 3
2011 Jan 21 80 7 3
2011 Jan 22 80 5 2
2011 Jan 23 80 5 2
2011 Jan 24 80 5 2
(NOAA)