Monday, July 31, 2017

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins


Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2017 Jul 31 0238 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 24 - 30 July 2017 Solar activity was very low throughout the summary period. A B1 flare, observed at 27/2136 UTC from a plage region near center disk, was the strongest event of the period. Region 2668 (N03, L=311, class/area Axx/010 on 25 Jul) decayed to plage by 26 Jul and Region 2669 (N18, L=255, class/area Axx/010 on 30 Jul) remained inactive. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to high levels on 26 Jul, high levels on 30 Jul and moderate
to high levels throughout the remaining days of the period. A maximum flux of 18,800 pfu was observed at 25/1515 UTC. The enhancements in flux levels were due to persistently elevated solar
winds from a slowly-waning, positive polarity CH HSS. Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels over the past week. Quiet to active levels were observed on 24 Jul and 26 July; quiet to unsettled levels were observed on 25 Jul and 27-28 Jul; the remaining days were quiet. Geomagnetic activity was associated with the influence of a slowly-waning, positive polarity
CH HSS enhancing solar wind speeds. A steady decline in wind speed was observed over the entire reporting period from a peak speed of 705 km/s at 24/2219 UTC to a low of around 350 km/s by the end of 30 Jul.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 31 July - 26 August 2017
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a chance for M-class flare (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) on 31 Jul - 13 Aug due to the return of old Region 2665 (S06, L=113) rotating across the visible
disk. The remainder of the outlook period is expected to be at very low levels.  No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to range from normal background to high levels. High levels are expected on 01-03 Aug, 05-10 Aug, and 18-26 Aug; moderate levels are expected 31 Jul and 11 Aug; normal background levels are expected for 04 Aug and 12-17 Aug. All enhancements in electron flux are due to multiple anticipated recurrent CH HSSs.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to range from quiet to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels. G1 (Minor) storm levels are likely on 04-05 Aug and again on 17-18 Aug; active conditions are likely on 31 Jul, 06 Aug and 19 Aug; unsettled levels are likely on 01-02 Aug, 07 Aug and 20-21 Aug; quiet conditions are expected for the remaining days of the outlook period. All anticipated enhancements in geomagnetic activity are due to multiple, recurrent CH HSSs.

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2017 Jul 31 0238 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2017-07-31
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2017 Jul 31      78          12          4
2017 Aug 01      78          10          3
2017 Aug 02      78           8          3
2017 Aug 03      75           5          2
2017 Aug 04      75          25          5
2017 Aug 05      75          18          5
2017 Aug 06      75          12          4
2017 Aug 07      75           8          3
2017 Aug 08      75           5          2
2017 Aug 09      75           5          2
2017 Aug 10      75           5          2
2017 Aug 11      75           5          2
2017 Aug 12      75           5          2
2017 Aug 13      75           5          2
2017 Aug 14      73           5          2
2017 Aug 15      70           5          2
2017 Aug 16      70           5          2
2017 Aug 17      70          15          5
2017 Aug 18      70          15          5
2017 Aug 19      70          12          4
2017 Aug 20      70          10          3
2017 Aug 21      70          10          3
2017 Aug 22      70          10          3
2017 Aug 23      70           5          2
2017 Aug 24      70           5          2
2017 Aug 25      70           5          2
2017 Aug 26      70           5          2
(NOAA)